Bitcoin /CAD (BTC/CAD) is currently trading at CAD 92,500. This week’s technical analysis indicates a key resistance level of CAD 95,000 and a support level of CAD 89,000, with an expected volatility of 18%. The quantitative model predicts a 55% probability of a breakout, as the open interest of CME Bitcoin futures has increased by 12% to $4.7 billion, boosting bullish sentiment. However, be vigilant about risks: Canada will release its CPI inflation data on August 1st (expected to be 4.6%). If it actually exceeds 5%, the strengthening of the Canadian dollar may suppress the increase of Bitcoin by 3% to 5%. Historical data shows that in the past half year, the average fluctuation of bitcoin to cad on the inflation release date has reached 9.8%.
On-chain activities support short-term upward movement. Glassnode monitoring shows that Bitcoin whales (holding over 1,000 BTC) increased their holdings by 15,200 coins (about 1.4 billion Canadian dollars) this week, raising their holding ratio to 38.4%. The net outflow from the exchange increased by 40% in a single week, with an average daily outflow of 85 million Canadian dollars, reducing selling pressure. Meanwhile, the mining cost indicator shows that thanks to the energy efficiency ratio rising to 35J/TH, the break-even point for miners has dropped to 78,000 Canadian dollars. The current price profit margin is 18%, reducing the motivation to sell. The cash flow of Bitcoin ETFs improved simultaneously. The net inflow of the Canadian Purpose ETF increased by 210 million Canadian dollars in the week, reaching a two-month peak.
Macro policies have become the core variable. The Bank of Canada’s August interest rate decision maintained the benchmark rate at 3.5%, but the statement removed the wording of “restrictive policy”. The market’s probability pricing of a rate cut in September rose to 70% (interest rate futures data). If the USD/CAD exchange rate breaks below the support level of 1.28, it may drive up the price of Bitcoin. However, if the initial value of the US GDP for the second quarter (expected at 1.8%) falls short of expectations, it will trigger a risk-averse sell-off in the crypto market. Regulatory dynamics require greater vigilance: Referring to the 2024 Canadian Crypto Asset Markets Regulations, the compliance cost for exchange reserves has increased by 15%, which has led Bitbuy to raise the BTC/CAD trading commission to 0.45%.
The derivatives market reveals divisions. The funding rate for BTC perpetual contracts turned negative (-0.008%), the short position ratio rose to 61%, and the leveraged liquidation threshold was concentrated around CAD 94,000. The volatility derivatives Skew index reached 35 (above the neutral value of 25), suggesting a surge in market demand for hedging. Combining technical indicators: The RSI is in the overbought zone (68), and the Bollinger bands have narrowed to 6%, indicating that a ±7% directional breakthrough may occur within the next 48 hours. Based on a comprehensive assessment, bitcoin to cad has a 65% probability of testing CAD 95,000 this week. However, if it breaks below the support of CAD 89,000, it is likely to pull back to the CAD 85,000 area.